Basseterre, Saint Kitts, June 12, 2026 (SKNIS): Residents and stakeholders across Saint Kitts and Nevis are being urged to prepare for the possibility of prolonged drought conditions that could persist throughout the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, despite the period traditionally being associated with increased rainfall.
Senior Meteorological Officer Elmo Burke, speaking at a National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) press conference on Friday, June 12, 2026, highlighted concerns about rainfall deficits that have developed across the Federation during the first five months of the year.
According to Burke, rainfall data collected at the Robert L. Bradshaw International Airport indicate that Saint Kitts and Nevis received only 8.66 inches of rainfall by the end of May, significantly below the long-term average of 15.5 inches for the same period.
“Put simply, we have received 44 percent less rainfall up to the end of May when compared to our long-term average,” Burke explained, noting that climatological comparisons are based on the period 1990 to 2020.
The situation has shown little improvement during this month. As of June 11, only 0.05 inches of rainfall had been recorded at the airport, compared to the average June rainfall total of 3.41 inches.
These persistent dry conditions prompted the issuance of a drought warning for Saint Kitts and Nevis in May, with current forecasts indicating that the warning is likely to remain in effect through the end of November.
While the hurricane season typically accounts for the majority of annual rainfall across the Federation, climate outlooks suggest that rainfall totals may remain below normal despite the possibility of occasional heavy rainfall events.
Meteorologists attribute the expected prolonged drought conditions to two major climate drivers: the development of a strong El Niño event and the seasonal intrusion of Saharan dust across the Caribbean region.
El Niño, characterised by the abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, often produces conditions that suppress rainfall across the Caribbean. Burke explained that the phenomenon increases upper-level wind shear and promotes sinking air over the region, both of which inhibit the formation of deep convective clouds responsible for significant rainfall.
“The expected increase in wind shear will limit the amount of rainfall we would usually receive as tropical waves and cyclones pass through the region,” Burke said.
The annual arrival of Saharan dust is expected to compound these challenges. Beyond reducing air quality, Saharan dust creates more stable atmospheric conditions that suppress cloud formation and rainfall across the islands.
Burke emphasised that the forecast does not eliminate the possibility of isolated heavy rainfall events or tropical weather systems affecting the Federation during the hurricane season. However, the overall trend is expected to favour lower-than-normal rainfall accumulations through the coming months.
As such, residents, businesses, farmers, and public institutions are encouraged to take proactive measures to conserve water and prepare for the potential impacts of an extended drought period.
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